August 06, 2018
Watch SO’s video:
Terral’s reply (08.07.2018):
Thank you for writing. Blot echoes are 4+ mag quakes at more than a 100-kilometer depth that these guys believe trigger 6+ mag quakes.
While many geologists/researchers/subs appear to be following SO down this blot echo path, my feeling is that the whole bunch remains oblivious to the changing global tectonic-volcanic dynamic associated with deep magma plume formations and the mantle plume connections (Hawaii, Galapagos, etc.). SO mentions the large-mag quake drought for 2018 (22 weeks in a row) and 2017 (24 weeks in a row) in his video, but offers no commentary whatsoever on the cause of the phenomenon. Here is a little tidbit of evidence that does not support the original hypothesis and conclusions:https://quakewatch.net/wp-content/uploa ... akes-I.pdf
2. THE CURRENT MODEL AND ALERT SYSTEM Blot echoes are defined in the model as magnitude 4.0 or larger earthquakes at depths of 100 km or deeper. The region immediately above a Blot echo is considered to be at higher risk of M6 or larger seismicity for 72 hours, with a range extending 1000km in every direction, up to 1500km directly along fault systems lying on north/south vectors, and up to 2000km directly along the east/west IndonesiaOceania fault systems. Subsequent Blot echoes occurring beneath the crustal alert zone of a previous Blot echo reset the 72-hour clock for any unexpired Blot echo alert regions overlapping the one created by the present Blot echo. The progression of the risk over the 72 hours following a Blot echo is dependent on crustal events; M4+ events in the alerted region, occurring shallower than 60km, would indicate that the at least some of it’s crustal disruption potential indicated by the deep event had been relieved, and would count as an answer to the Blot echo, reducing the level of risk for a larger event in that area.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e ... es_in_2018
Near the top of the page, you can see "Number of earthquakes worldwide for 2008-2018. Let's focus in on the 4.0-4.9-mag quake-event total values for 2014 through 2018 for signs of a pattern:
Now, add the 4.0-4.9-mag quake events for 2014 through 2017 and you get 5686 as the combined 4-year period that produced 3 of the 8-mag quakes, 51 of the 7-mag quakes, 498 of the 6-mag quakes and 5841 of the 5-mag quakes.
Next, let's do the math for 2018 where you find a whopping 6421 of the 4.0-4.9-mag quake events that is larger than the previous four years combined, and we are still only in August! Earth has seen only 49 of the 6-mag quakes and at the current frequency will not reach 100, which has not happened in the previous decade. While we should realize that these year-over-year seismic-event value totals do not account for earthquake-event depth, multiplying the number of 4.0-to-4.9 global quake events by FIVE TIMES should send the higher-mag quake events higher at the same time, which is definitely not the case.
https://www.infoplease.com/world/earthq ... -worldwide
Earth should see 17 of the 7-mag quakes and 134 of the 6-mag quakes every calendar year on average, which amounts to one of the 7's every 21.5 days and one of the 6's every 2.7 days, or just over 5 of the 6-mag quakes every two weeks. Again, we are at the beginning of August 2018 and Earth has already had about five times the number of 4.0-4.9 quake events, while at the same time Earth passed from Week 13 to Week 21 (9 weeks) with only 4 of the 6-mag quake events striking around the globe.
Earth has now gone 22 weeks in a row without a 7-mag quake event with PLENTY of Blot Echo events like we saw last year with 24 weeks in a row. The problem for SO's earthquake prediction model is that the global tectonic-volcanic dynamic has shifted violently since the 6.9 Hawaii Event caused by the mantle plume (hotspot) connections made to the gigantic deep magma plume formation. I am not at all confident that SO, Dutchsinse or Mary Greeley understand the global tectonic reset events coming with the 7.9 Papua Quake from the 2017 Earth orbit cycle or the 7.5 Papua Quake from this orbit cycle, as both events represented the seventh and final earthquake event in a series to initiate the 7-mag drought periods like the one we are moving through right now. They are in desperate need of understanding the new global tectonic-volcanic dynamic through the eyes of the deep magma plume formation and those mantle plume connections, but my suspicion is that they will continue rowing their boats in the wrong direction without ever seeing the forest for all the trees.
This and other related articles are published in:
Terral's 2018 Newsletter 32
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